Risk of nuclear war ‘higher than ever’ – UK House of Lords

‘The level of nuclear risk has increased, in particular since the decline in relations between Russia and the West from 2014. There is a danger that misunderstanding, miscalculation or mistakes could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. Steps to manage and reduce this risk should be of the highest priority for the [UK] Government.’

So finds a UK House of Lords select committee report on ‘Rising nuclear risk, disarmament and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’, which outlines the state of the world’s nuclear inventory, the impact of technological developments including ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons, nuclear doctrine, the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the impact of the United States’ withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as well as arms control initiatives and related topics.

Amongst the committee’s conclusions are that while preventing the proliferation of nuclear capabilities to non-nuclear weapon states must remain a priority, ‘[T]he principal cause of increased risk is the continued and at times expanding reliance of nuclear possessor states on their nuclear weapons.’

It also finds that, ‘The world is increasingly multipolar, which means approaches to managing nuclear risk cannot focus only on the US, NATO and Russia. Efforts must also include states such as China, as well as nuclear possessor states outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

‘Notwithstanding current tensions, the Government should be prepared to talk to Russia about nuclear strategic stability. The risks of miscommunication, misperception and miscalculation are too grave to allow other aspects of Russia’s behaviour to preclude talks on nuclear issues.

‘It is also important that NATO has a dialogue with Russia on nuclear issues as part of an effort to take all steps to reduce the risk of nuclear use. One way of doing this would be to reinvigorate dialogue within the NATO-Russia Council.’

The committee cautions: ‘Nuclear possessor states are developing more sophisticated capabilities, utilising new technologies, and there is increasing “entanglement” between conventional and nuclear weapons. These developments increase the possibility of miscalculation and the speed of decision-making, both of which could result in an escalation of hostilities.’